CoT: Nat Gas Shorts Race to the Exit
A closer look at the latest speculator positioning
Mobius Intel Brief: Speculators’ Recap
Natural Gas: Net spec positioning has continued its upward trend for the fourth week, bringing net long/short managed money holdings into positive territory for the first time since August 2023. Warmer 8-14-day forecasts have capped the bearish impact of models predicting cooler temperatures in the near term. Production and demand data point to directionally bullish year-on-year shifts, amplified by recovering LNG exports and growing expectations for record power consumption this summer.
Crude Complex: Net spec length on WTI jumped by the most since March, with shorts removing positions of nearly 25 million barrels and longs adding almost 19 million barrels from May 14th to May 21st. WTI prices at the front of the curve have traded in a narrow range of $76-$80 since the onset of May, turning attention to OPEC’s June 2nd meeting and increasing expectations for a “no change” decision. Still-simmering geopolitical tensions have limited downside action while markets mull murky economic prints, uneven East-West demand data, and steep supply-side competition in the Atlantic Basin.
Long/Short Trends in Energy Markets
Natural Gas:
ERCOT power consumption hit record May highs six times this month as unseasonably warm temperatures pummelled the southern continental United States, raising ‘hot summer’ expectations and adding bullish support to natural gas markets.
Looking ahead, the latest 8-14-day CONUS outlook shows above-normal temperatures persisting in all regions outside Appalachia, capping bearish near-term weather forecasts through June 2nd.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Mobius Risk Group to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.