DMU: November 13, 2023
Analysis of the latest trends in oil and natural gas markets, including OPEC+ decisions, macroeconomic factors, geopolitical influences, and EIA inventory data.
On Today’s Daily Market Update:
The WTI market has shown signs of recovery after a steep decline from mid-October, potentially due to position squaring or anticipation of bullish DOE reporting. Positive developments in global refined products, particularly the upcoming start of gasoline production at Nigeria's Dangote refinery, have impacted the market.
Domestic product prices have risen, with notable increases in front month diesel and RBOB contracts. The modest rise in front month WTI prices suggests cautious optimism among producers. The WTI curve's shape saw little change, indicating a market still finding its footing.
In natural gas, a less bearish forecast compared to last week has led to a rise in front month NYMEX prices, with a slight reduction in the contango curve shape. However, the market remains priced for a warm winter, with long-dated tenors showing modest gains. The market is closely watching forecast changes, production levels, and potential impacts from the Freeport LNG facility's situation, balancing these against the backdrop of El Nino conditions and a substantial storage surplus.
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