Sustained Impact of Shipping Disruptions
Red Sea attacks drive 84% YoY increase in Cape of Good Hope vessel transits. Incremental bunker fuel demand adds pressure to tight Atlantic Basin heavy sour.
Mobius Intel Brief
Hapag-Lloyd:
“What we are seeing is that the attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are moving further and further out to sea. That is why we are avoiding this area altogether.”
Maersk:
"The risk zone has expanded, and attacks are reaching further offshore.”
"This has forced our vessels to lengthen their journey further, resulting in additional time and costs to get [cargo] to its destination for the time being.”
Tight supplies of heavy sour crude in the Atlantic Basin are picking up pressure from incremental bunker fuel demand as vessels detour around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. Shipping firms Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd say the risk zone for offshore attacks is expanding. Operators expect a 20% reduction in Asia-Europe shipping capacity in Q2, with a 40% per-voyage increase in fuel consumption. European import prices from East-of-Suez will continue to be exposed to upside risks, complicating the recovery of the Euro Area’s industrial sector. Panama Canal transits are showing early signs of recovery as the Panama Canal Authority expects stronger rainfall through May. However, officials suggest long-term restrictions to avoid a repeat of 2023/2024 disruptions from low water levels in Gatun Lake. Rising Panama Canal transits will provide a much-needed respite for spot LNG buyers in Asia, creating fresh competition for European buyers and an interesting trend to watch as we enter peak cooling season in the Northern Hemisphere.
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Sustained Impact of Shipping Disruptions
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