U.S. Turns Power Exporter?
A first in history for lower-48 electricity trade with the U.S.' northern partner.
Mobius Intel Brief:
The Canadian power grid’s significant exposure to hydropower output means it’s particularly vulnerable to variable weather patterns. This Spring’s low water levels flipped the U.S.-Canada power relationship on its head, with the United States becoming a net exporter of electricity to Canada for the first Jan.-Jun. period in data going back more than a decade.
Behind the scenes in the U.S., lower-48 grid load (via the EIA's form-930) has yet to display robust YoY growth from highly anticipated demand drivers like EVs and data centers. Meanwhile, generation resources are outperforming 2023 and 2022 by double-digit percentage points.
The U.S. Turns Power Exporter?
Canada’s hydroelectric generation provides approximately 59% of the country’s total power supply — but only when water levels are high enough.
However, unpredictability is the name of the game for all energy resources that depend on Mother Nature, so this year’s extreme drought conditions are a considerable complication for Canada’s power providers.
With water levels in several of Canada’s most populated W/SW regions at record Spring lows, Canadian territorial power authorities are turning to the U.S. for electricity supplies.
As a result, the continental United States became a net power exporter to Canada from January to June for the first time according to data going back at least a decade.
From March 1st to May 31st, the lower 48 U.S. exported a net 112 GW of power across the northern border versus 360 GW and 437 GW of imports in 2023 and 2022, respectively.
In Canada’s favor, meanwhile, is near-flat load growth in the lower 48 U.S. in 2024 — only 2.4% higher than the same period’s average in 2023.
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